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Flood risk appraisal and management in the mega-cities: A case study of practice in the Pearl River Delta, China.

机译:特大城市洪水风险评估与管理 ​​- 以珠江三角洲地区实践为例。

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摘要

In recent decades, the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region has experienced strong economic and population growth. By 2050 120 million people are expected to live in the region, which currently has eleven major cities, and the emerging mega-city formed by Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou. The populous coastal cities and low lying flood plains in the PRD experience flood risk via: (i) intense precipitation from storms, (ii) inland pluvial flooding, (iii) storm surges. Climate change, including global sea level rise forecasts of more than 1 metre by 2100, mean that flood risk is expected to increase in future. Sustainable flood risk management must be adopted to mitigate these risks. Strategies such as the UK’s “making space for water” programme seek to tackle flood risk through planning, but such a strategic approach is not evident in the PRD. Recent coastal land reclamation projects in the PRD illustrate the conflict between urban growth pressure and flood risk, and that more comprehensive, or sustainable, flood risk management is not currently practiced. This paper examines flood risk management practice in the PRD. It starts with a theoretical sustainable flood risk appraisal (SFRA) template developed from literature and global best practice, against which PRD practice is benchmarked. The paper discusses a case study in Hong Kong and Shenzhen where in-depth discussions with more than 30 stakeholders were held to understand barriers and constraints to realising sustainable flood risk management. This research seeks to further the practice of sustainable flood risk management in the PRD, and comparable urbanising mega-deltas in the region.
机译:近几十年来,珠江三角洲(PRD)地区的经济和人口增长强劲。到2050年,预计该地区将有1.2亿人居住,该地区目前有11个主要城市,以及由香港,深圳和广州组成的新兴大城市。珠江三角洲人口众多的沿海城市和低洼洪泛区通过以下方式遭受洪水风险:(i)暴风雨造成的强降水,(ii)内陆洪水,(iii)风暴潮。气候变化,包括到2100年全球海平面上升超过1米的预测,意味着未来洪水风险将增加。必须采用可持续的洪水风险管理来减轻这些风险。英国的“为水腾出空间”计划等策略旨在通过规划来解决洪水风险,但这种策略性方法在珠三角地区并不明显。珠三角最近的沿海土地开垦项目说明了城市增长压力与洪灾风险之间的冲突,而且目前还没有实行更全面或更可持续的洪灾风险管理。本文考察了珠三角的洪水风险管理实践。它从理论和可持续发展洪水风险评估(SFRA)模板开始,该模板是根据文献和全球最佳实践开发的,以PRD实践为基准。本文讨论了香港和深圳的案例研究,与30多个利益相关者进行了深入讨论,以了解实现可持续洪水风险管理的障碍和制约因素。这项研究旨在促进珠三角地区可持续洪水风险管理的实践,以及该地区可比拟的城市化大三角洲的实践。

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